تحلیل هوش مصنوعی
تشخیص الگو • پیشبینی • ارزیابی تهدید
خلاصه وضعیت
US-Iran tensions remain extremely high, with the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group en route to the region and Iranian regime issuing explicit threats of retaliation. No direct strikes have occurred, but military assets and rhetoric suggest preparations for possible action. Domestic unrest in Iran continues under severe repression, and communications are largely blacked out.
تحولات کلیدی
USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is 1609 nm from Strait of Hormuz, ETA ~80 hours
Iranian regime unveils multiple public warnings of retaliation if attacked
US, European, and Japanese governments have issued evacuation advisories for Iran
Iranian internet connectivity at 5% (near-total blackout)
Protests continue with high estimated death toll and regime crackdown
پیشبینیهای هوش مصنوعی
US limited strikes on Iranian military/nuclear targets
7D
Carrier group ETA aligns with historical pre-strike timelines; evacuation advisories and regime threats match June 2025 pattern, but no direct trigger yet.
US/Israel joint operation against Iran
30D
Escalating rhetoric, military deployments, and regime bunkerization suggest preparation; historical pattern shows strikes often occur within 2-3 weeks of these signals.
Israeli independent strike on Iran
30D
Israel is on alert but typically acts in concert with US; no unique Israeli trigger detected.
Regime collapse from internal pressure (no foreign military)
30D
Protests are severe but regime repression remains effective; no mass defections or loss of control detected.
Status quo continues (no major strikes)
90D
Despite high tension, lack of direct trigger and historical precedent for last-minute de-escalation (Trump calls off strikes) suggest inertia may prevail.
تحلیل سناریو
محتملترین
55%Continued elevated tension, military posturing, and diplomatic brinkmanship without immediate strikes; regime maintains control through repression.
تشدید
32%US/Israel conduct limited or joint strikes on Iranian military/nuclear assets, triggering regional retaliation and possible broader conflict.
کاهش تنش
13%Diplomatic breakthrough or regime concessions lead to temporary reduction in tensions; no strikes occur.
اطلاعات قابل اجرا
- Monitor USS Abraham Lincoln's position and ETA to Gulf
- Track regime executions, protester treatment, and opposition calls for foreign intervention
- Watch for sudden mass flight cancellations or embassy evacuations
شاخصهای نظارت
بینشهای هوش مصنوعی زنده
Priorityتحلیل پنجره حمله
پیشبینی جدول زمانی رویداد
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گزارش اطلاعاتی
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